LITTLE CHANGE IN HIRING PROJECTED BY MANPOWER 3RD-Q EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK - SHRM
After 2-1/2 years of reporting strong job prospects, U.S. employers are holding the line on hiring plans for the 3rd-Q of 2006, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 57% expect no change in their hiring pace this year in the 3rd-Q. While 31% expect to add to their payrolls, 6% are undecided about their July through September hiring plans and 6% actually expect to reduce their staff levels.
Manpower Inc.’s Chairman and CEO said in a press release because the hiring outlook has been so consistent for so long, they have had plenty of time to analyze the survey findings and point out the level of sophistication employers have achieved in their hiring. Having reached this extended plateau, it is unlikely that we will experience any major swings, negative or positive, in the job market until employers see a dramatic change in demand for their products and services.
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, some positive industry trends emerge. For example, four employment sectors, transportation/public utilities, finance/insurance/real estate, services and public administration, expect slightly better employment prospects for the 3rd-Q vs. the 2nd-Q. However, manufacturing, retail and education employers expect the hiring pace to remain about the same.
Hiring optimism is starting to fade, however, in the construction and mining sectors. Manpower Inc.’s Chairman and CEO said although construction employers expect to hire at a brisk pace again during the 3rd-Q, hiring in this sector has inched downward throughout 2006. He said there is rampant speculation about the state of the housing market, and these survey results are another piece of evidence that point toward a cooling trend.
Among the 4 U.S. regions surveyed, employers in the South and West report the strongest hiring intentions for the 3rd-Q. The Northeast reports slightly improved job prospects in store for the third quarter compared to the 2nd-Q, while employers in the Midwest have the most conservative hiring plans.
Global Outlook
3rd-Q hiring also is expected to be positive in 23 of 25 countries and territories surveyed, with employers in India, Japan, Hong Kong, Ireland and Belgium reporting their most optimistic hiring plans to date, based on seasonally adjusted data. Meanwhile, the labor market continues to cool in China, while German employers reported a negative hiring outlook for the 3rd-Q.
He said overall, the global market appears to be in good shape with continued steady hiring expected in the U.S. and throughout the Americas. Europe continues to improve from last year, and hiring activity is generally strong across Asia Pacific. |